Why I am a Google SGE Optimist
In my last blog post, I put some thoughts “on paper” about why [many] content sites will likely survive for years to come despite the inevitable march of AI.
I analogized the world of publishing to a herd of Wildebeests. Yes, Google is coming for publisher traffic, and yes, the herd will be culled. But with 8.5 billion Google searches being performed daily, the current system will live on.
The chorus of apocalyptic predictions for publishing and SEO feels like GroupThink. After all, SEO is not an industry known for innovation or leadership. It is fundamentally a follower and copycat space, and most of the SEO “thought leaders” do little more than Tweet what they think they should to stay in Google’s good .
The most sober takes I have seen on SGE come from marketers who acknowledge a decline in search traffic to some categories, but describe it as a matter of degree (10-30%).
Ross Hodgens has been one of the best.
Yes, some affiliate sites are likely to get wiped out.
I doubt the rare good ones will.
Google may be pressured to link to publishers within AI generated answers to keep pace with Bing, which could actually be a boon for publishers.
However, the two primary reasons I am an SGE optimist are:
The continued dominance of the smart phone;
The currency of Trust
First, the dominance of the smart phone. I don’t see AI generated answers as the death of publishing as long as our devices stay handheld. Smart phones are built around keyboards, which are natural for typing search queries into a search engine (and text messages, Facebook posts, grocery lists, etc.).
As long as most of us use smart phones, I see search as a vital tool.
Consider this quote from Tim Urban.
The era of rectangular devices and screens will soon give way to the era of headsets, which will eventually give way to the era of brain-machine interfaces.
Assuming this is the way technology advances, the question is what constitutes soon?
Is “soon” 5 years from now?
I doubt it. Because I believe smart phones, and not headsets, will be dominant in 5 years, I am betting that the current publisher system has close to another decade left.
Hardware aside, most people won’t trust unattributed AI generated content salads. The idea that Google is somehow exempt from the vital role that citations play in written work is beyond me.
People still want to know who is behind the content they consume, and the erosion of trust as AI creeps into all aspects of the web will necessitate more robust citation, not less.
In the near term, this means that SGE could ultimately send more traffic to some publishers than in the old SERPs.
Stay tuned.
